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How to predict MLB All-Star Scoreboard Challenge with projections and history of stats


Want the inside scoop on baseball’s scoreboard challenge? I’ve taken all the box scores from every All-star game, compiled the data, entered them into a spreadsheet and database. There’s even seven graphs illustrating how to pick the right score. Click here to check it out.

Here’s the official info about the Challenge:

Win $76,000 if you can guess the total number of runs scored in each half inning of the All-Star Game, as well as the final number of hits and errors for the American and National Leagues, respectively.

Get every inning, hit and error totals correct for your chance to win $76,000. If no one predicts the entire game correctly, the person with the top score will win four tickets to the 2006 All-Star Game at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. To make your guess or for more information, click here.

Or if you want complete analysis of the historical records of the all-star game, click here.

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Our first step is guessing the final score. So let’s take a look at the most popular final scores from the All-Star games from 1933-2004. All the stats on this page will come from all the Major League Baseball’s All-Star Games from 1933-2004, let’s make sure there aren’t any historical change from then to now.

Looks fairly consistent in its inconsistency. Let’s go onward to find the most popular scores. Here’s a pie chart of the most popular final run amounts. The away team’s score is first, the home is second.

The home team winning 1-4 is the most popular, occuring five times. Five times is not a very high percentage given there are 74 games total in this mix. Let’s take a look at what the most popular run total is.

Four runs is high on the list, but both three and one run are even more common. But going back to the first pie chart, there has been three times that the home team won 1-3. (and 3-1 with the away team winning happened twice).

2-4 looks like a popular score, but teams don’t score two runs total very often.

So let’s go with 1-3. How many total hits should we guess? Let’s look at all the games that a team scored three runs… what would be the average amount of hits.

A team that scores three runs will get an average of 7.6 hits. So let’s say 8. And for one run, they’ll get 5.5 hits, so let’s say six. If you guessed a different final score, just check this chart to see what your average hits would be.

Now let’s guess the amount of errors. For this, let’s look at it differently. What’s the most popular final score for errors?

Looks like 0-0 takes the cake. But that’s so boring. When we’re watching the game, we want to root for one team to make an error. This will make all the plays more exciting. 1-0 and 0-1 are deadlocked at 14 occurances. The next on the list is just six. Whoa. Let’s try to determine which will be better 0-1 or 1-0.

It looks like the more runs a team scores, the more errors they dish out. Kinda odd, but let’s go with that. So our final run score of 1-3 (1: away, 3: home) will now have an error total of 0-1 (0: away, 1: home).

Now that we have our total runs, hits, and errors determined, now we move onto figuring out where to slot these runs into the nine innings of play. Which are the most popular innings to score a run in the All-Star game?

We know to avoid the 5th inning, just look at that drop! Same thing with the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning. And there just aren’t that many extra inning scores, so that’s dropped as well. 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th are left now. Seeing that we are giving just one run to the away team, let’s slot that in the 2nd inning, because that’s the inning that has the most one-run scores. One run was scored 29 times in the 2nd inning.

   
Innings
     1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9  10+
Number of times
the inning had
a run(s) scored
0 106 107 102 107 113 98 109 107 90 0
1 21 29 27 23 19 27 22 16 8 8
2 12 11 10 11 8 14 11 14 7 2
3 5 1 5 5 3 6 3 7 6 0
4 3 0 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 0
5 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
7 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

And for the home team, we got 3 runs to distribute. Three runs doesn’t come by very often, so let’s split that up into 2 and 1. The sixth inning is most popular to have two runs. And now for that final one run by the home team. Ah the 3rd inning looks good based on that previous line chart. The 3rd inning is the second most popular inning to score in (and the most popular for the home team).

So there we have it. Here’s my guess for the outcome of the 2005 MLB All-Star Game:

  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+ R H E
National 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 0
American 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 X 3 8 1

And here’s the source of all the box scores from all the all-star games.

Please feel free to leave any comments about your predictions, how you came up with your predictions, or how my system is totally faulty.

Comments are very welcome, please leave a Reply

12 comments on "How to predict MLB All-Star Scoreboard Challenge with projections and history of stats"

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lwells
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11 years 19 days ago

i think you would be an excellent statistician

Tom Saaristo
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11 years 19 days ago

Good gravy, man! I concur with Lisa. Such detail! Of course if you were a statishoochiewhatchamcallit we wouldn’t have the great art you create …

Serf
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Serf
11 years 17 days ago

PLease let us know how you scored

willie warren
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11 years 17 days ago

i like to see who won and how many pionts they had

Anonymous
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Anonymous
8 years 9 months ago

Hey Lisa said something very nice . But you know better right? I suppose you know what you are doing. Anyway, I like the way you selected the charts. Good luck.

software nederland
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8 years 6 months ago

Get every inning, hit and error totals correct for your chance to win $76,000. If no one predicts the entire game correctly, the person with the top score will win four tickets to the 2006 All-Star Game at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.

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