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How to predict MLB All-Star Scoreboard Challenge with projections and history of stats

Want the inside scoop on baseball's scoreboard challenge? I've taken all the box scores from every All-star game, compiled the data, entered them into a spreadsheet and database. There's even seven graphs illustrating how to pick the right score. Click here to check it out.

Here's the official info about the Challenge:

Win $76,000 if you can guess the total number of runs scored in each half inning of the All-Star Game, as well as the final number of hits and errors for the American and National Leagues, respectively.

Get every inning, hit and error totals correct for your chance to win $76,000. If no one predicts the entire game correctly, the person with the top score will win four tickets to the 2006 All-Star Game at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. To make your guess or for more information, click here.
Or if you want complete analysis of the historical records of the all-star game, click here.

==============
Our first step is guessing the final score. So let's take a look at the most popular final scores from the All-Star games from 1933-2004. All the stats on this page will come from all the Major League Baseball's All-Star Games from 1933-2004, let's make sure there aren't any historical change from then to now.



Looks fairly consistent in its inconsistency. Let's go onward to find the most popular scores. Here's a pie chart of the most popular final run amounts. The away team's score is first, the home is second.



The home team winning 1-4 is the most popular, occuring five times. Five times is not a very high percentage given there are 74 games total in this mix. Let's take a look at what the most popular run total is.



Four runs is high on the list, but both three and one run are even more common. But going back to the first pie chart, there has been three times that the home team won 1-3. (and 3-1 with the away team winning happened twice).

2-4 looks like a popular score, but teams don't score two runs total very often.

So let's go with 1-3. How many total hits should we guess? Let's look at all the games that a team scored three runs... what would be the average amount of hits.



A team that scores three runs will get an average of 7.6 hits. So let's say 8. And for one run, they'll get 5.5 hits, so let's say six. If you guessed a different final score, just check this chart to see what your average hits would be.

Now let's guess the amount of errors. For this, let's look at it differently. What's the most popular final score for errors?



Looks like 0-0 takes the cake. But that's so boring. When we're watching the game, we want to root for one team to make an error. This will make all the plays more exciting. 1-0 and 0-1 are deadlocked at 14 occurances. The next on the list is just six. Whoa. Let's try to determine which will be better 0-1 or 1-0.



It looks like the more runs a team scores, the more errors they dish out. Kinda odd, but let's go with that. So our final run score of 1-3 (1: away, 3: home) will now have an error total of 0-1 (0: away, 1: home).

Now that we have our total runs, hits, and errors determined, now we move onto figuring out where to slot these runs into the nine innings of play. Which are the most popular innings to score a run in the All-Star game?



We know to avoid the 5th inning, just look at that drop! Same thing with the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning. And there just aren't that many extra inning scores, so that's dropped as well. 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th are left now. Seeing that we are giving just one run to the away team, let's slot that in the 2nd inning, because that's the inning that has the most one-run scores. One run was scored 29 times in the 2nd inning.

  
Innings
   123456789 10+
Number of times
the inning had
a run(s) scored
010610710210711398109107900
1212927231927221688
212111011814111472
35155363760
43021211220
50011100000
61000100000
70010000000
80000000000
90000000000
100000000001
110000000001


And for the home team, we got 3 runs to distribute. Three runs doesn't come by very often, so let's split that up into 2 and 1. The sixth inning is most popular to have two runs. And now for that final one run by the home team. Ah the 3rd inning looks good based on that previous line chart. The 3rd inning is the second most popular inning to score in (and the most popular for the home team).

So there we have it. Here's my guess for the outcome of the 2005 MLB All-Star Game:

 12345678910+RHE
National010000000--160
American00100200X--381


And here's the source of all the box scores from all the all-star games.

Please feel free to leave any comments about your predictions, how you came up with your predictions, or how my system is totally faulty.



By Matt Maldre on Jul 10, 05 | 1:11 pm  |   [53080] Hits  |   permalink | archives

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i think you would be an excellent statistician

Posted by: lisa on Jul 11, 05 | 6:21 am


Good gravy, man!

I concur with Lisa. Such detail! Of course if you were a statishoochiewhatchamcallit we wouldn't have the great art you create ...

Posted by: Tom on Jul 11, 05 | 11:17 am


PLease let us know how you scored

Posted by: Serf on Jul 13, 05 | 6:19 am


Serf, my predictions are at the very end of this post. I predicted a low-scoring game of 1-3. But it ended up bing a more offensive game:
NL 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 5 11 0
AL 0 1 2 2 0 2 0 0 X 7 11 1
But hey, the AL did score in the 3rd and 6th inning, like I predicted.

Posted by: spudart on Jul 13, 05 | 6:40 am


Based on the official scoring of:
5 points for every correct half inning with 0-1 runs.
10 points for every correct half inning with 2-4 runs.
20 points for every correct half inning with 4+ runs.
25 points for the correct total of runs for the NL.
25 points for the correct total of runs for the AL.
25 points for the correct total of hits for the NL.
25 points for the correct total of hits for the AL.
10 points for the correct total of errors for the NL.
10 points for the correct total of errors for the AL.

10 points: AL 6th inning with 2 runs
10 points: NL error total
10 points: AL error total
I got 30 points total.


Posted by: spudart on Jul 13, 05 | 6:44 am


i like to see who won and how many pionts they had

Posted by: willie warren on Jul 13, 05 | 7:55 am


According to the Rules Section it states:
For winner information (available after December 1, 2005) or an additional copy of the Official Rules, send a self-addressed, stamped envelope to: MLB.com All-Star Scoreboard Challenge c/o Gregg Klayman, MLB Advanced Media, L.P., 75 Ninth Avenue, New York, NY 10011. Specify "Rules" or "Winner List." Requests must be received by September 30, 2006. Residents of VT may omit return postage on rules requests.

So not only do we have to wait until December, but we gotta send 'em a snail mail! I thought the MLB was much more advanced than this! snail mail? Five month wait? If they really knew how to get people involved in their competitions, they would let people know who won and what they guessed. That's part of the whole fun of winning--knowing how someone beat you.

Posted by: spudart on Jul 13, 05 | 8:09 am


err, i should say that's part of the whole fun of PLAYING (not "winning").

Posted by: spudart on Jul 13, 05 | 8:10 am


Hey Lisa said something very nice . But you know better right? I suppose you know what you are doing. Anyway, I like the way you selected the charts. Good luck.

Posted by: on Oct 29, 07 | 6:28 pm


Get every inning, hit and error totals correct for your chance to win $76,000. If no one predicts the entire game correctly, the person with the top score will win four tickets to the 2006 All-Star Game at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.

Posted by: software nederland on Jan 19, 08 | 11:51 am


I hope I could compile this much amount of data myself, since it has been pending for quite some time at my desk.

Posted by: on Feb 06, 08 | 12:46 pm


I would like to know who won and whats the score.

Posted by: on Mar 04, 08 | 3:46 am


Welcome
Hi. I'm Matt Maldre. Every single weekday my blog on spudart.org has a new post with an original idea or discovery. Be sure to stop by daily to see what's happening.



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